基于不同时间维度的智能配电网趋势预警系统

Smart Distribution Automation Tendency Warning System Based on Different Time Dimensions

提出一种基于不同时间维度的智能配电网趋势预警系统,分别在中长期和短期对电网大数据进行统计、分析和趋势预测。在中长期时间维度,通过用电量大数据分析技术,对区域用电量进行时间序列分析。利用漏斗模型,层层递进监测全省用电量、行业用电量、地区用电量、地区行业用电量、用户用电量信息和负荷异动趋势。在短期时间维度,将现有的在线分析预警技术拓展至超短期负荷预测,经过叠加潮流计算得出电网短期运行状态趋势分析结果。提出的全时域趋势预警系统能有效弥补在线预警和日前安全校核之间的趋势分析功能空白,有效缩短事故后抢修时间,减少用户损失,为下一步需求侧管理奠定基础。

A new smart distribution automation tendency warning system on different time dimensions is proposed.As a result,big data statistics,analysis and prediction of power network are made in the long-to-medium term and short term.In the long run,distributed network time-series analysis is realized through electricity consumption big data analysis technique.By using filling funnel model,which monitors electricity consumption on the province,industry,region,regional industry and customer levels progressively,the abnormal trend could be figured out.Short-term load prediction is done,followed by overlay power flow calculation.Thus the tendency result is implemented.This distributed network tendency warning system proposes help to fill the gap between day-ahead and on-line power system calculations,laying a good foundation for future demand side management implementation,while decreasing power system incident handling time.