中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的再讨论

Re-discussion on New Keynesian Phillips Curve in China

针对国内目前对新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线研究中关于模型设定和估计方法上存在的缺陷,利用经济学家、居民以及笔者自测的三种通胀预期指标对中国的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线进行重新估计。实证结果显示无论采用何种通胀预期指标,实际经济行为、通胀惯性和通胀预期对于当期通胀的影响都是显著的,但通胀预期起主导作用。该结果意味着一方面完全前向的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线能够为中国的通胀动态关系提供有效近似;另一方面政府通过对公众预期的引导可以更加有效地实现物价稳定的目标。

In view of defects of the model setting and estimation methods in the current research on the new Keynesian Phillips curve in China,authors re-estimated the new Keynesian Phillips curve in China by using the three inflation expectation indexes measured by economists,residents and authors.The empirical results show that no matter what kind of inflation expectation index is adopted,the impact of actual economic behavior,inflation inertia and inflation expectation on current inflation is significant,but inflation expectation plays a dominant role.This result means that on the one hand,the completely forward new Keynesian Phillips curve can provide an effective approximation for the dynamic relationship of inflation in China,on the other hand,the government can achieve the goal of price stability more effectively by guiding public expectations.