区域视角下碳排放驱动因素影响程度分析

Analysis on the Influence Degree of Carbon Emission drivers from the Regional Perspective

采用指数分解法(IDA)和产品分解法(PDA),通过引用新能源消费量因素,对全国30个省份、直辖市、自治区的碳排放驱动因素进行分解,最终将碳排放驱动因素分解为七大因素。在此基础上对中国东、中、西三大区域进行碳排放量回归分析,结论显示:在七大因素中技术进步因素对于三大区域降低碳排放的效果最明显。对于要素替代因素而言,资本替代在三大地区均可以促进碳减排,而新能源的替代仅仅在能源丰富的西部地区能够实现碳减排。能源消费结构的升级对于东部地区降低碳排放更有效;产业结构的升级对于促进西部地区降低碳排放量更有效。

By adopting index decomposition method(IDA)and product decomposition method(PDA)and introducing new energy consumption factor,the carbon emission drivers of 30 provinces,municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions in China were decomposed,and the carbon emission drivers were finally decomposed into seven major factors.On this basis,carbon emission regression analysis is conducted for three regions of East,central and west China.The conclusion shows that,among the seven factors,technological progress has the most obvious effect on the reduction of carbon emission in the three regions.As for factor substitution factors,capital substitution can promote carbon emission reduction in the three regions,while new energy substitution can only achieve carbon emission reduction in the energy-rich western regions.The upgrading of energy consumption structure is more effective for the eastern region to reduce carbon emissions.The upgrading of industrial structure is more effective in reducing carbon emissions in western China.