基于突变理论公共突发事件群体恐慌行为的分析——以A企业物流分拣厂为例

Analysis of Group Panic Behavior in Public Emergencies Based on Catastrophe Theory——Take Logistics Sorting Plant of Enterprise A as an Example

为了研究如何有效地控制与预防密集人员在公共突发事件中引起恐慌行为,文章以A企业物流分拣厂火灾人员逃生情况为例进行分析,并假设该厂房逃生人员恐慌行为的产生主要受到外部压力与认知水平两个因素的影响,通过采用突变理论新视觉分析了密集人员恐慌行为产生的演化机理,解释了密集人员在外部压力与自身认知水平两个因素的交互作用下恐慌行为产生的规律性。最后,根据分析的结果提出针对性的管理措施,为人员密集场所发生突发事件后的应急救援与安全预防管理提供一定的理论指导。

In order to study how to effectively control and prevent the panic behavior caused by dense personnel in public emergencies,this paper takes the fire escape situation of the logistics sorting plant of enterprise A as an example to analyze,and assumes that the panic behavior of escape personnel in the workshop is mainly affected by two factors:external pressure and cognitive level.By using the catastrophe theory,this paper analyzes the evolution mechanism of panic behavior of dense personnel,and explains the regularity of panic behavior under the interaction of external pressure and their own cognitive level.Finally,according to the results of the analysis,targeted management measures are proposed to provide a certain theoretical guidance for emergency rescue and safety prevention management after the occurrence of emergencies in crowded places.