高铁建设对四川区域经济的影响研究——以成绵乐高铁为例

Research on the Impact of High Speed Rail Construction on Sichuan Regional Economy——Chengdu Mianyang Leshan High Speed Railway

基于成绵乐高铁沿线四川区域内的5个地级市和非沿线13个城市2010~2018年面板数据,运用双重差分模型并引入相关变量实证分析了高速铁路对沿线城市经济的影响。结果表明:高速铁路的建设与运营能够促进沿线区域的对外贸易和人口就业,但对沿线城市经济增长并不能起到显著的积极作用,对于整个四川区域经济发展带动作用不够明显。最后,提出四川省应该努力挖掘高铁潜力,发挥高铁优势,鼓励积极发展旅游业,保持开放自由的经济政策,继续加大川南和川北的高铁建设等建议来促进四川整个区域经济的持续稳定健康增长。

Based on the 2010~2018 panel data of 5 prefecture-level cities along the Chengdu-Mianyang-Leshan high-speed railway in Sichuan and 13 cities outside the line,this paper uses a double difference model and introduces relevant variables to empirically analyze the impact of high-speed railways on the economy of cities along the line.The results show that the construction and operation of high-speed railways can promote foreign trade and population employment in the regions along the line,but they cannot play a significant positive role in the economic growth of cities along the line,and they are not obvious enough to take the lead in the economic development of the entire Sichuan region.Finally,it is proposed that Sichuan province should strive to tap the potential of high-speed rail,take advantage of high-speed rail,encourage the active development of tourism,maintain an open and free economic policy,and continue to increase the construction of high-speed rail in southern and northern Sichuan to promote sustained,stable and healthy economic growth in the entire region of Sichuan.