云南省宾川县降雨时间变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Rainfall Time Variation in Binchuan County,Yunnan Province

为探究气候变化对区域降雨特征的影响,本文利用云南省宾川县气象观测站1956年~2019年的实测降雨资料,运用线性趋势法、累计距平法和滑动平均法分析降雨时间序列的趋势性,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验和有序聚类法分析降雨时间序列的突变性,并选用Morlet小波分析法分析降雨序列的多时间尺度变化规律。结果表明:近64a来云南省宾川县降雨年内分配极不均,但有规律可寻,年均降雨量呈丰枯交替变化,总体呈微弱的减少趋势。降雨序列在2009年发生突变,突变前后平均降雨量相差139.8mm;振荡周期在47a左右时间尺度上表现最为明显,为第一主周期。研究结果可为云南省宾川县水资源特征变化,合理配置及农牧林业生产提供数据支持。

In order to explore the impact of climate change on regional rainfall characteristics,this paper uses the measured rainfall data from 1956 to 2019 at Binchuan meteorological observation station in Yunnan Province,uses linear trend method,cumulative anomaly method and moving average method to analyze the trend of rainfall time series,Mann Kendall test,sliding t test and ordered clustering method to analyze the mutation of rainfall time series,and selects Morlet small Wave analysis is used to analyze the multi time scale variation of rainfall series.The results show that the annual distribution of rainfall in Binchuan County in recent 64 years is extremely uneven,but there is a regular pattern to be found.The annual rainfall changes alternately from wet to dry,and the overall trend is weak.In 2009,the rainfall series had a sudden change,and the average rainfall before and after the change was 139.8 m m;the oscillation period was the most obvious on the time scale of 47a,which was the first main period.The results can provide data support for the change of water resources characteristics,rational allocation and production of agriculture,animal husbandry and forestry in Binchuan County,Yunnan Province.