财政自主权与产业协同发展——基于京津冀城市群数据的实证分析

Fiscal Autonomy and Coordinated Development of Industries:Empirical Analysis Based on Data of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

从产业集聚与产业结构升级两个角度理解产业协同发展,并据此分析财政自主权对产业协同发展的影响。财政自主权能通过财政支出结构灵活性、转移支付和政府竞争三个方面影响产业集聚和产业结构升级,从地区经济特征角度出发,财政自主权会推动产业结构升级,但抑制产业集聚。以2006—2017年京津冀城市群数据为样本,运用空间计量模型进行实证分析,考虑内生性后的估计结果表明:财政自主权的提升能够促进本地产业结构升级,但会抑制本地产业集聚,并且具有空间溢出效应,这一溢出效应抑制周边地区产业结构升级,推动产业集聚。由此,可以为提升本地财政自主权,推动区域合作与交流,促进区域产业协同发展提供政策启示。

From the perspective of industrial agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading,this paper analyzes the impact of fiscal autonomy on industrial collaborative development.It is found that fiscal autonomy can affect industrial agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading through four aspects:fiscal expenditure structure flexibility,fiscal behavior volatility,transfer payment and government competition.From the perspective of regional economic characteristics,fiscal autonomy will promote industrial structure upgrading,but inhibit industrial agglomeration.In the empirical part,taking the data of Beijing Tianjin Hebei urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2017 as the sample,the spatial econometric model is used for empirical analysis,and the estimation results after considering the endogeneity show that:the improvement of fiscal autonomy can promote the upgrading of local industrial structure,but it can inhibit the local industrial agglomeration,and has the spatial spillover effect,which can inhibit the upgrading of industrial structure in the surrounding areas and promote the industry agglomeration.The conclusion provides policy implications for enhancing local fiscal autonomy,promoting regional cooperation and exchange,and promoting the coordinated development of regional industries.