高等职业教育不同专业大类入学机会的供求关系——基于2005-2016年浙江省高考数据的分析

Supply-Demand Relationship of Entrance Opportunities for Different Majors in Higher Vocational Education:An Analysis Based on College Admission Data of Zhejiang Province(2005-2016)

我国高等教育的供求研究多见于产品供求关系研究,少见于机会供求关系研究;多见于本科层次的研究,少见于高职高专层次的研究。针对我国高等职业教育的机会供求问题,以浙江省高考录取结果为依据测评了不同专业大类的入学机会供求关系态势。结果显示:不同专业大类的机会供求关系一直处于动态变化中的结构失衡状态;面向第三产业的专业大类(旅游大类除外)在招生中总体比面向第一、第二产业的专业大类更为供不应求;不同专业大类相对供求关系的变化轨迹可归结为波折上升型、波折下降型、U型、倒U型和波折平衡型五种类型,各自变化成因不一。该结论可为我国高职高专不同专业大类的供给调整方向提供客观依据。在此基础上,可进一步建立高等职业教育入学机会供求关系和毕业生供求关系双维度数据库及其信息反馈机制,使之真正在实践中服务于政府和高校决策。

The research on the supply and demand of higher education in China mostly focused on the relationship between product supply and demand,and rarely on the relationship between opportunity supply and demand.It commonly aimed at undergraduate level,but rarely at higher vocational education.This study mainly focused on the supply and demand issues in China's higher vocational education admission opportunities,and measured the supply-demand relationship of different major categories based on the college admission data of Zhejiang Province.The results show that the supply-demand relationship of opportunities in different majors has been in a dynamic state of structural imbalance.The major categories for the tertiary industry(except the tourism category)were generally more in short supply than the major categories for the first and second industries in enrollment.The change trajectory of the relative supply-demand relationship of different major categories can be attributed to five types:zigzag rising,zigzag descending,U-shaped,inverted U-shaped and zigzag balanced type,each of which had different causes.This conclusion can provide an objective basis for the supply adjustment direction of different majors in higher vocational colleges in China.On this basis,it is possible to further establish a two-dimensional database on the supply-demand relationship of higher vocational education entrance opportunities and the supply-demand relationship of graduates,and its information feedback mechanism,so that it can truly serve the government and university decision-making in practice.