情报分析视角下新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情研究

Analysis of Epidemic Situation of New Coronavirus Pneumonia from the Perspective of Intelligence Analysis

[目的/意义]基于突发事件主题的公开源情报分析,不仅对有效控制新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情及其传播、保障人民生命健康及财产安全具有重要意义,甚至关系到社会稳定、经济发展及国家安全等方面,有助于提高相关部门的决策响应速度及效果。[方法/过程]5G时代的到来,促使网络上的数据流量与日俱增,越来越多的情报将从网络公开信息中获取,通过引入竞争性假设分析法(ACH),首先,对新型冠状病毒的来源进行研判;然后,针对全球疫情数据以及疫情防控的发展过程具体分析,最后,提出相关建议。[结果/结论]研究发现:其一,新型冠状病毒来源于新型自然病毒灾害,但事件发展具有变动性,因此,课题组同时也设定了3个观察方向作为后续观察标记,以便及时保证结论的准确性。其二,中国国内疫情防控取得了阶段性的巨大胜利,为全球疫情防控提供了成功的经验,但仍需外防输入,内防反弹,巩固来之不易的防控成果。其三,我国在重大疫情防控体制机制、公共卫生体系建设等方面仍存在不足之处,亟待提高疾控机构的专业话语权。

[Purpose/significance]The analysis of open source intelligence based on the theme of emergencies is of great significance not only for the effective control of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and its spread,the protection of people's health and property safety,but also for social stability,economic development,and national security.Helps improve the speed and effectiveness of decision-making in relevant departments.[Method/process]The advent of the 5G era,has led to an increasing amount of data traffic on the network.More and more intelligence will be obtained from public information on the network.By introducing a competitive hypothesis analysis method(ACH),first research and judge the source of the new coronavirus,and then analyze the global epidemic data and the development process of epidemic prevention and control,and make relevant suggestions.[Result/conclusion]The findings of this research include that:First,the new coronavirus is derived from the new natural virus disaster,but the development of the event is variable.Therefore,the research team also set three observation directions as follow-up observation marks in order to ensure the accuracy of the conclusion in time.Second,China's domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved tremendous successes,providing successful experience for global epidemic prevention and control.However,external defense input and internal defense rebound are still required,thus consolidating hard-won prevention and control achievements.Third,China still has shortcomings in major epidemic prevention and control systems and mechanisms and the construction of public health systems.It is urgent to improve the professional voice of disease control agencies.