中国能源消费与经济发展脱钩的驱动因素研究

The Driving Factors of China’s Energy Consumption and Economic Development Decoupling

基于Tapio脱钩模型对我国2008-2018年能源消费与经济发展之间的脱钩状态进行了研究,将脱钩的驱动因素划分为能源结构、经济规模、能源强度、人口规模与城镇化5个方面的驱动因素,采用改进的LMDI分解模型对脱钩指数进行了因素分解研究.研究表明:我国能源消费越来越清洁化,能源消费脱钩弹性指数呈现出逐渐下降的趋势,脱钩状态进一步优化;经济增长因素与城镇化综合因素是最大的脱钩抑制因素,能源强度因素是最大的脱钩促进因素.

This paper studies the decoupling state between China’s energy consumption and economic development from 2008 to 2018 based on Tapio decoupling model.The driving factors of decoupling are divided into five aspects,which are energy structure,economic scale,energy intensity,population size and urbanization.The five factors were studied by using the LMDI decomposition model.Research shows that China’s energy consumption becomes cleaner and cleaner,and the decoupling elasticity index of energy consumption gradually decreases,and the decoupling state is further optimized.Economic growth factors and urbanization comprehensive factors are the largest decoupling inhibitors,and energy intensity factors are the largest decoupling contributors.