中国应为下一个人口转折点未雨绸缪吗?

A Tale of Two Turning Points:Should China Worry About Its Next Population Hinge?

在老龄化这个长期人口变化趋势中,中国将先后经历两个有重要意义的转折点。第一个转折点以劳动年龄人口进入负增长为标志,通常会降低经济潜在增长率,从供给侧对经济增长造成冲击;第二个转折点是以总人口进入负增长为标志,通常具有抑制经济增长需求因素的效应,会妨碍潜在增长率的实现。一些国家的经验表明,转入人口负增长会因总需求减弱使一个国家经济增长表现不佳,甚至在转变之际出现严重衰退,增长速度经常处在潜在增长能力之下。中国已迈过第一个转折点,潜在增长率已经逐年下降,并即将迎来第二个转折点,如何实现自身潜在增长率成为现实的挑战。面对未富先老国情,中国须特别警惕下一个人口转折点造成的冲击。立足于进一步深化改革和扩大开放,未雨绸缪地进行一系列政策调整,形成双循环发展格局,是应对这个转折点冲击的根本之策。

In the course of population aging,China need experience two significant turning points in economic growth.The first one is turning the working age population from growing to shrinking,which weakens potential growth of an economy and thus presents a supply-side shock on its growth.The second is turning the total population from growing to shrinking,which depresses demand-side factors of economic growth and makes a country’s actual growth below its potential growth.There are three observations from countries that experienced the second turning point,namely they are suffering from a negative population growth.First of all,as the result of weakening overall demand,they tend to grow poorly relative to those who are at the similar development phase and the demographic transition stage but have not witnessed a negative population growth.Secondly,they are more likely to experience a severe recession when their population growth rate was turning to be negative.Thirdly,they tend to suffer from the negative growth gap,as well as the difference between actual and potential growth rates.Since China passed through the first turning point in 2010,its potential and actual growth is declining year by year.As China is going to encounter the second turning point in about 2025,realizing its potential growth rate will soon become an urgent task.To tackle the challenges of growing old before getting rich,China should be alert to the impact of the next turning point,and carry out a host of policy adjustments so as to form a new development pattern that focuses on and promotes both domestic and international circulations.