经济效率、刺激依赖与城投债规模

Economic Efficiency,Stimulus Dependency and Urban Construction Investment Bonds

自2008年全球金融危机以来,全球经济环境的恶化加速了我国高速发展背后的隐患全面爆发,经济效率增速持续减缓,导致经济增速的不断下行。为实现保增长目标,我国陆续推出包括加大投资力度、放宽信贷条件在内的一系列经济刺激政策,然而过快的资本深化一方面受限于资本边际效率递减,另一方面加速了经济效率增速的放缓,最终导致刺激政策的经济驱动效果越来越弱,在稳增长约束下政府不得不持续加码刺激力度,导致了中国经济的“刺激依赖”现象。在中国特殊的财政分权体制下,地方政府财政收入远不足以支撑如此庞大的政府投资计划,城投债逐步成为地方政府融资的重要工具,市场资金的青睐和地方政府强烈的融资需求共同推动了城投债规模的快速膨胀。

2008 global financial crisis,the global economic environment deterioration accelerates the bursting of the hidden troubles behind the rapid development and slow down the growth of economic efficiency,which leads to the downward trend of economic growth.To ensure economic growth,Chinese government has been implementing expansionary policies,including increasing government investment and easing credit conditions.However,due to the diminishing marginal efficiency of capital and accelerating slow-down of TFP growth,the overheat of the capital investment leads to the diminishing effects of stimulating policies.Under the constraint of stabilizing economic growth,the government has to continuously strengthen the stimulus and so leads to stimulus dependency phenomenon.With China’s special fiscal decentralization system,the revenues of local governments can not afford such huge investment plans and urban construction investment bonds become the important financing instrument.Therefore,both the large financing gap and investors’preference promote the rapid increase of the urban construction investment bonds.