2002—2018年历届冬奥会短道速滑奖牌时空分布特征研究

Analysis on the Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Short Track Speed Skating Medal from 2002 to 2018 Winter Olympic Games

为明晰短道速滑的实力格局和发展趋势,助力2022年北京冬奥会短道速滑战略布局,采用文献资料、相关分析、空间分析等研究方法,对2002—2018年历届冬奥会短道速滑奖牌的时空分布特征进行分析。结果发现:冬奥会获得短道速滑奖牌的国家较少,奖牌分布极不均匀,2002—2010年间韩国、中国奖牌数量领先其他国家较多,2014—2018年间俄罗斯、荷兰、匈牙利进步较快,竞争日益激烈;韩国男女实力均衡,优势项目为中长距离;中国奖牌“女多男少”,优势项目为女子中短距离;男子500 m、男子5000 m接力项目上奖牌分散,是奖牌争夺的重点;平均纬度,年平均气温,人均GDP和人类发展指数不会直接影响国家短道速滑实力;中国奖牌分布集中在黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省,但近年实力呈下滑趋势,冬奥会获得奖牌主要依赖于运动员的个人能力,团队实力偏弱;开展省份少、注册运动员少、专业场馆不足、优势项目单一、后备人才年龄结构不合理等因素制约我国短道速滑项目发展。

In order to clarify the strength pattern and development trend of short track speed skating,and promote the strategic layout of short track speed skating in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games,the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of short track speed skating medals in 2002-2018 Winter Olympic Games were analyzed by literature research,correlation analysis and spatial analysis.It showed that fewer countries had won short track speed skating medals and the distribution of medals was extremely uneven.In 2002-2010,South Korea and China had more medals than other countries.In 2014-2018,Russia,the Netherlands and Hungary had made rapid progress and increasingly fierce competition.South Korea had balanced strength between men and women,and its dominant events were medium-long distance,while Chinese medals were“women”.The dominant events were women′s short distance,men′s 500 meters and men′s 5000 meters relay medals scattered,which was the focus of medal competition;average latitude,annual average temperature,per capital GDP and human development index would not directly affect the national short track speed skating strength;China′s medal distribution was concentrated in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning in recent years.Strength was declining,Winter Olympics awards depended on athletes′individual ability,team strength was weak;less provinces,fewer registered athletes,insufficient professional venues,single dominant events,unreasonable age structure of reserve talents restrict the development of short track speed skating in China.