中国对外直接投资效率测算及其金融性影响因素研究

China's Outward FDI Efficiency Estimation and Its Financial Influencing Factors

本文在我国对外直接投资(ODI)迅速扩张而其效果又存在争议的背景下,研究了ODI效率及其金融性影响因素。在理论层面,从投入-产出角度提出ODI效率测算的原理,并揭示金融市场规模和结构对ODI效率的影响机制。在实证层面,基于随机前沿分析(SFA)方法,利用我国31个省份(港澳台地区因数据缺少剔除)2003—2015年的面板数据进行效率测算和影响因素分析。实证结果表明:①我国ODI效率整体呈上升趋势,ODI效率区域间差异较大但呈缩小趋势;②金融市场规模扩大和发展水平提升对ODI效率具有显著正向影响,居民储蓄过高和间接融资比例过大的金融市场结构特征对ODI效率具有显著负向影响;③金融性因素对ODI效率的影响具有稳健性。

The efficiency of outward direct investment(ODI)and its financial impacting factors are examined in the context of China's rapid and controversial growth of ODI.In theory,it proposes the principal to measure ODI efficiency from the input-output perspective,and reveals the mechanism of financial market's scale and structure impacting ODI efficiency.In empirical research,it uses China's provincial date during 2003—2015 to calculate the efficiency and tests the impacting factors.The empirical results show as follows.First,China's ODI efficiency is increasing,and the difference among areas is big but narrowing.Second,the expansion and development of financial market positive impact ODI efficiency,while the structure of financial market characterized by excessive savings and indirect financing negative impact ODI efficiency.Third,the significant impact of financial factors on ODI efficiency is robust.