中国与“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易潜力与效率及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型实证分析

Trade Potential,Efficiency and Influencing Factors between China and Countries along the Maritime Silk Road--Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的构想以推动和实现从海洋为中心的全球化到海陆联通的全球化,从西方为中心的全球化到南北均衡的全球化为目标,也是我国新一轮对外开放的伟大愿景。国际贸易是实现该愿景的核心和重要纽带,通过使用随机前沿引力模型,研究中国与"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的贸易潜力,并测算出影响双边贸易效率的因素。研究表明:贸易伙伴国的经济规模、共同语言、贸易自由度、自由贸易协议签订、政局稳定、政府效率和贸易便利化程度都会对贸易产生积极的影响。中国与"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的平均贸易效率处于较为稳定的上升态势,贸易潜力仍有上升空间;中国与印度、越南、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡的贸易有一定的发展潜力。

The goal of the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"is to promote the globalization from the ocean as the center to the connectivity between sea and land,and from the West as the center to the balanced globalization between the north and the South.It is also the great vision of China's new round of opening up.International trade is the core and important link to realize this vision.By using stochastic frontier gravity model,the trade potential of China and countries along the"Maritime Silk Road"is studied,and the factors affecting bilateral trade efficiency are calculated.The research shows that:the economic norms,common language,trade freedom,free trade agreement signing,political stability,government efficiency and trade facilitation of the trading partners will have a positive impact on trade;The average trade efficiency of China and countries along the"Maritime Silk Road"is in a relatively stable rising trend,and the trade potential still has room to rise.China's trade with India,Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand and Singapore has certain development potential.