科罗拉多河流域水资源利用和气候条件对农民收入的影响及其对我国农业发展的启示

The Influence of Water Resources Utilization and Climatic Conditions on Farmer Income in Colorado River Basin and Its Enlightenment to Agricultural Development in China

美国科罗拉多河流域水资源和农业管理,是美国乃至世界的典范,其河流特征与水资源状况与我国黄河流域具有较大的相似性。利用美国西部7个州2005和2010年的水资源、气候、经济、人口统计学等数据,建立多元线性回归模型,分析该流域影响农民收入的水资源利用、天气和气候等因素。研究发现,地表水灌溉比重、农作物种植收入、作物生长期平均降雨量、最高平均气温与最低平均气温均显著影响着农民的收入水平。地表水灌溉比重每增加1,农民纯收入减少约54.19元,当农作物种植收入占农产品交易总收入比重为41.34时,农民纯收入最小。当区域内平均降雨量大于42.37 mm时,降雨量每增加1 mm农民收入将增加399.97元。因此增加农民收入可综合利用引河灌溉以及蓄水灌溉相结合的灌溉模式、改进灌溉技术、优化种植结构、积极引导农户积极应对降水和气温升高带来的影响。

The water resources and agricultural management of Colorado River Basin in the United States is a typical example of America and the world.The river characteristics and water resources situation are similar to the Yellow River Basin in China.Based on the data of water resources,climate,economy,and demography of seven western states in the United States in 2005 and 2010,this paper establishes a multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors affecting farmers'income,such as water resources utilization,weather and climate,etc.The results indicate that farm income is significantly affected by the proportion of surface water irrigation,crop planting income,average precipitation during crop growing period,maximum average temperature and minimum average temperature.When the proportion of surface water irrigation is increased by 1%,the net income of farmers will decreases by about 54.19 yuan.When the proportion of crop planting income in the total income of agricultural products trading is 41.34%,the net income of farmers is the lowest.When the average rainfall in the region is more than 42.37 mm,farmers'income will increase 399.97 yuan for every 1 mm increase in rainfall.Therefore,farmers'income can be increased by comprehensively utilizing the irrigation mode combining diversion river irrigation and water storage irrigation,improving irrigation technology,optimizing planting structure,and actively guiding farmers to actively respond to the impact of precipitation and temperature rise.