近60年青海湖流域径流特征及演变规律研究

An Analysis of Runoff Evolution Law in Qinghai Lake Basin in the Past 60 Years

基于1956-2016年青海湖流域逐月径流量实测资料,采用集中度、累积距平法、线性趋势回归检验法、M-K突变检验法和小波分析法等方法,分析了60年来青海湖流域径流量的年内、年际变化特征和演变趋势。结果表明:①青海湖流域径流年内分配不均匀,四季径流量变化较大;②径流的年际变化特征,大体经历了“枯-平-丰”的演变过程,即1956-2003年的枯水期、2003-2012年的平水期和2012-2016年的丰水期;③流域内径流量总体呈现增加趋势,其中夏季增加趋势最为显著,其次是冬季季节,径流突变发生在2002-2005年左右,小波分析年径流具有24年的主周期。未来一段时间,青海湖流域年径流量还将持续增加。研究结果可为青海湖水资源保护和生态恢复提供科学依据。

Based on the runoff data of Qinghai Lake Basin from 1956 to 2016,this paper uses concentration ratio,accumulative anomaly,linear trend regression testing method,M-K mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis of regular pattern of runoff in the Qinghai Lake in the past 60 years,results show that:The runoff is not evenly distributed within years;the runoff has undergone a process from dry to moderate and then to abundant,which reflects the periodicity,the stage and the continuity of water cycle changes.There is an obvious upward trend of the quantity of runoff after 2003.The runoff suddenly changed from 2002 to 2005.According to wavelet analysis,the main period of annual runoff lasts 24 years,which means that the runoff will continue to be excessive in the next few years.The results can provide a scientific basis for water resources protection and ecological restoration of Qinghai Lake.