市郊铁路客流规模影响因素分析及提升客流对策研究

Analysis of factors affecting passenger traffi c volume of suburban railways and countermeasures to improve passenger traffi c

在对北京已开通的3条市郊铁路客流规模及变化原因分析的基础上,深入挖掘市郊铁路客流影响因素并初步判断影响因素范围,将影响市郊铁路客流规模的因素归纳为3类12项,并利用系统动力学原理建立关系模型。根据模型分析结果,规划和设计类影响因素最为重要,决定市郊铁路交通需求的上限;运营服务类影响因素决定市郊铁路对客流的吸引能力,是能否吸引转移沿线其他交通方式需求的关键因素;外部环境及发展类影响因素会引发市郊铁路不同时期客流的波动,对市郊铁路客流亦有较大影响。最后,结合3类影响因素分别提出提升市郊铁路客流对策。

Based on the analysis of passenger traffi c volume and the fl uctuation factors of the three commercial suburban railways in Beijing,this paper further studies the factors affecting the passenger volume of suburban railways and preliminarily identifies the fluctuation range of passenger traffic volume.The factors affecting the passenger traffic volume of suburban railways are classifi ed into 12 categories,and the relation model is established by using the principle of system dynamics.With the analysis result of the model,the planning and designing factors are most important,which determine the upper limit of suburban railway passenger traffi c volume.While operational service factors determine the ability of suburban railways to attract passengers,and are also the key factors to attract passengers to transfer from other modes of transport in areas along the line.External environment and development cause fluctuations of the suburban railway passenger traffic volume in different periods and have a great impact on passenger traffi c volume.In conclusion,based on the three types of impact factors,this paper recommends the countermeasures to improve the passenger traffi c volume of suburban railways.