区域性扶贫政策的增长与分配效应--基于集中连片特困区的经验证据

The Growth and Distribution Effect of Place-based Poverty Alleviation Policy:Empirical Evidence from Concentrated Contiguous Poverty-stricken Areas

区域性扶贫政策在中国扶贫和区域政策体系中均占据重要位置。然而现有文献对其效果的认识始终存在分歧,且评估视角有待拓展。本文利用2006—2016年县级面板数据,以集中连片特困区的确立为政策冲击,从增长和分配效应双重视角研究了区域性扶贫政策的效果。在增长效应方面,基于双重差分法和多种稳健性检验的结果表明,政策显著促进了经济增长和农民增收,且对后者的作用更大,但增长效应在政策实施3至4年后皆出现衰减;机制分析则发现政策通过第一和第二产业增长等渠道对经济增长和农民增收产生间接影响。在分配效应方面,本文首次将包容性增长框架应用于评估不同地区从区域性扶贫政策中获益的差异,研究发现发展水平相对较低的地区从政策中获益更多,政策具有包容性增长性质,有助于缩小发展差距。本文的研究对理解区域性扶贫政策如何影响贫困地区发展以及2020年后扶贫政策转型具有一定启示。

Place-based poverty alleviation policy plays an important role in China’s poverty alleviation and regional policy system.However,the existing literature on its effects has always been divergent,and the perspective of evaluation needs to be expanded.Based on the county-level panel data from 2006 to 2016,taking the establishment of concentrated contiguous poverty-stricken areas as policy shocks,this paper studies the effect of place-based poverty alleviation policy from the perspective of growth and distribution effect,In terms of growth effect,based on the"Difference in Difference"method and multiple robustness tests,the results show that the place-based poverty alleviation policy significantly promotes economic growth and farmers’income,and the effect on the latter is greater than the former,but the growth effect declines after the implementation of the policy for 3-4 years;the mechanism analysis finds that the policy has an indirect impact on economic growth and farmers’income through the growth of primary and secondary industries.In terms of distribution effect,this paper applies inclusive growth framework to evaluate the difference in benefits from place-based poverty alleviation policies in different regions for the first time.The study finds that regions with relatively low development level benefit more from policies,and the policies have the nature of inclusive growth,which helps to narrow the development gap.This study has some implications for understanding how the place-based poverty alleviation policies affect the development of poor areas and the transformation of poverty alleviation policies after 2020.