粮食生产区域演变研究进展

Research Progress in Evolution of Grain Production Areas

粮食生产区域变迁是关乎粮食安全的核心问题,国内外多位学者对此进行了大量研究,通过梳理相关国内外文献,总结出当前主要研究成果具有以下特点:(1)注重粮食生产空间数据统计,并逐渐应用空间回归模型,可避免由于因变量自身相关或者遗漏变量造成的偏差,对普通回归模型的研究起到了较好的矫正作用;(2)由理论层面逐渐向实际应用层面延伸,表现为研究区域由国家、省层面逐渐缩小到市和县域层面,影响因素的研究也开始由多因素综合分析向单因素分析转变,研究成果的深度和实际应用意义得到提升。同时存在重宏观轻微观、重一般轻特殊、重静态轻动态等不足。对下一步关于粮食生产区域变迁的研究,提出了研究视角的细化、回归分析的内生性考虑、空间计量中的地理异质性等建议。

The change of food production areas is the core issue related to food security.Many scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of researches on it.By sorting relevant domestic and foreign literature,this paper summarizes the main research results with the following characteristics:(1)paying attention to the spatial data statistics of grain production,and gradually applying the spatial regression model,which can avoid the correlation of dependent variables or omission of variables and rectify the research of common regression model;(2)the researches are extended from the theoretical level to the practical application level,the research areas are gradually reduced from the national and provincial levels to the city and county levels,and the researches on the influencing factors also start to change from the multi-factor comprehensive analysis to the single factor analysis,and the depth and practical significance of the research results are improved.At the same time,there are some shortcomings,such as more attention is paid to the macro,the general and the static state researches while less attention paid the micro,the special and the static state researches.Some suggestions are put forward for further researches on the change of grain production areas,such as the refinement of research perspective,the endogenous consideration of regression analysis,and the geographical heterogeneity in spatial measurement.