基于前景理论与理想解法的应急预案评估模型

Emergency Plan Evaluation Model Based on Prospect Theory and TOPSIS Method

为对突发事件救援确定最优应急预案、提高救援效率,通过选取全面性、时效性、经济性、可操作性4个指标,基于前景理论以及理想解法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)对应急预案优劣排序。首先,专家根据打分标准给出各指标下预案的属性值,并利用Shapley值集结指标;其次,利用直觉模糊熵计算各专家权重值,确定最优方案。以选择最优的应急预案为例,结果表明方法的可行性与实用性。

To determine the optimal emergency plan for emergency rescue and improve rescue efficiency,four indicators of comprehensiveness,timeliness,economy,and operability were selected,and the pros and cons of the emergency plan were ranked based on the prospect theory and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)method.At beginning,the attri-bute values of the plans were given by experts under each indicator according to the scoring scheme,and the Shapley value was used to aggregate the indicators.Secondly,the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy was used to calculate the weight values of each expert to determine the optimal solution.The test of the optimal emergency plan shows good feasibility and practicability of the method.