资本账户开放、金融发展与国际资本流动“突然停止”--基于全球68个经济体的实证考察

Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Development and“Sudden Stops”of International Capital Flows--Empirical Analysis based on68 Economies around the World

资本账户开放在促进国际资本跨境流动、提高资源配置效率的同时,也加大了资本流动的波动性并导致极端资本流动冲击频发。本文利用68个经济体1985—2018年的数据,考察了资本账户开放对国际资本流动“突然停止”的影响以及金融发展在其中的作用机制。研究发现:资本账户开放会提升国际资本流动“突然停止”的发生概率,而一国金融发展有助于缓冲资本账户开放过程中的“突然停止”冲击,其缓冲程度可达28.72%,且金融机构相对于金融市场的缓冲作用更大;金融发展程度以0.4为界,其缓冲作用呈现出非对称的“V”形变化。机制分析表明,金融发展通过推动经济增长、稳定汇率发挥缓冲作用。由此,在推进资本账户开放的过程中,坚持“先机构、后市场”的金融改革次序、提高金融机构和金融市场深度、扩大金融机构可得性,同时稳定经济增长、抑制汇率过度波动是防范国际资本流动“突然停止”的应有之义。

While capital account liberalization promotes cross-border flows of international capital and improves the effi⁃ciency of resource allocation,it also increases the volatility of capital flows and causes frequent shocks to extreme capital flows.This article uses data of 68 economies from 1985 to 2018 to examine the impact of capital account opening on the“sudden stops”of international capital flows and the mechanism of financial development in it.The study finds that capital account open⁃ing will increase the probability of“sudden stops”of international capital flows,and a country’s financial development can help cushion the impact of“sudden stops”in the process of capital account opening.The buffer level can reach 28.72%.The finan⁃cial institutions have a greater buffering effect relative to financial market.The degree of financial development is bounded by 0.4,and its buffering effect presents an asymmetric“V”-shaped change.Mechanism analysis shows that financial development plays a buffer role by promoting economic growth and stabilizing exchange rates.Therefore,in the process of advancing the open⁃ing up of the capital account,we should adhere to the financial reform sequence of“financial institutions first,followed by finan⁃cial market”,increase the depth of financial institutions and financial markets,and expand the availability of financial institu⁃tions.At the same time,stabilizing economic growth and restraining excessive fluctuations in exchange rates are necessary to pre⁃vent the“sudden stops”of international capital flows.