美国开启“印钞机模式”:历史比较、物价测算及对中国的警示

The U.S. Turns on“Printing Money Mode”: Historical Comparison,Price Calculation and Warnings to China

本文基于Friedman的通胀无时无刻都是货币现象的理论,在分析当前美国无限量印钞的基础上,进一步从历史视角对独立战争、内战、大萧条和2007—2009年间金融危机中通过信用货币超发获取铸币税来解决危机的成败进行深入探讨;对美元全球化转嫁效应进行测算。本文发现,美国史上只有第四次通过纸币解决危机的努力成功了。美联储启动无限量印钞是深思熟虑的行动,但却难以让新兴经济体效仿。中国应吸取错失经济转型升级良机的教训,抓牢绝佳机遇,采取有效措施增强人民币信用背后的经济实力,拓展小微经济主体融资渠道不能因循守旧。应认识到人民币超发难以让国际买单;而来自美元及其国际支付系统风险的威胁已迫在眉睫;同时须在人民币全球化战略方面寻找新突破。

Based on Friedman's theory that inflation is a monetary phenomenon,this paper analyses the current U.S.limit⁃less money printing,then discusses the success or failure of the U.S.to cover the cost of crisis in the Revolutionary War,Civil War,Great Depression,and 2007-2009 Financial Crisis by obtaining seigniorage through the over-issue of credit currency from a historical perspective.Furthermore,this paper calculates the transfer effects of inflation from dollar globalization.It finds that only for the fourth time in U.S.history has paper money successfully been used to solve the crisis.The Fed's move to limitless QE is deliberate,but it is hard for emerging economies to follow suit.China should draw lessons from the missed chance of eco⁃nomic transformation and upgrading,seize the opportunity of the expansion of pandemic in the world,take effective measures to enhance the RMB confidence,and expand the financing channels for small-micro businesses.It is difficult for the cost of the over-issuing RMB to be paid by foreigners.The threat from the dollar and its international payment system is imminent.China should make a breakthrough in RMB globalization strategy.