基于F-AHP评价法的PPP项目风险评价研究

Research on PPP project risk evaluation based on F-AHP

运用模糊层次评价法(F-AHP)对PPP项目进行风险评价,对风险因素进行了分析,建立了评价标准和决策准则。针对风险等级的决策目标,构建了由5个一级风险因素和20个二级风险因素构成的评价指标体系,通过专家问卷调查对项目二级风险进行了评估,确定了发生的概率。运用模糊层次评价法对PPP项目案例的因素指标进行定性分析及定量计算,得到了案例中一级风险因素评价指标的风险评价得分及风险大小排序,得知该PPP项目的成本费用是主要的风险控制因素,通过该项目总体风险评价计算可判断该项目整体风险为中等。因此,模糊层次评价法是对PPP项目进行风险评价行之有效的方法,可以为PPP项目的风险决策提供了依据。

Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(F-AHP)is used to evaluate the risk of PPP project.Firstly,the risk factors are analyzed,and the evaluation criteria and decision-making criteria are established.Aiming at the decision target of risk grade,an evaluation index system consisting of 5 first-level risk factors and 20 second-level risk factors is constructed,and the second-level risk of the project is evaluated through expert questionnaire survey,and the probability of occurrence is determined.The qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation of the factor index of the PPP project case are carried out by using the fuzzy AHP evaluation method,and the risk evaluation score and risk ranking of the first-level risk factor evaluation index in the case are obtained.It is known that the cost of the PPP project is the main risk control factor,and the overall risk of the project can be judged to be medium through the overall risk evaluation calculation.Therefore,the fuzzy AHP evaluation method is an effective way to evaluate the risk of PPP projects,which can provide a basis for the risk decision-making of PPP projects.