中国与“一带一路”沿线国家进口贸易格局及其发展潜力分析

An Analysis of Import Trade Pattern and Development Potential between China and the Countries along the“Belt and Road”

本文运用随机前沿分析方法,选取2000-2017年64个“一带一路”沿线国家为样本,研究中国与“一带一路”沿线国家进口的贸易效率及贸易潜力。实证结果表明,中国与沿线国家的经济规模、人口总量、地理距离、接壤情况对中国进口贸易规模具有显著影响;中国与沿线国家的签署自贸协定情况、沿线国家的外商直接投资额、贸易自由度、金融自由度、投资自由度以及航空运送量等非效率因素均在不同程度上对中国进口贸易产生影响。中国进口贸易效率逐步提升,但平均贸易效率较低,不同国家及区域的贸易效率存在较大差异;从短期看,中国进口贸易潜力呈现极化现象,而在长期中国进口贸易潜力还有巨大的空间可以挖掘。通过分析中国进口贸易效率,对于充分挖掘短期和长期中国进口贸易潜力,持续扩大中国进口贸易,坚持践行互利共赢理念具有启示意义。

This paper selects 64 countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2000 to 2017 as samples by using stochastic frontier analysis method to study trade efficiency and trade potential between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”.The empirical results show that the scale of China′s import trade is significantly affected by the economic scale,total population,geographical distance and border situation between China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”;the non efficiency factors such as the signing of free trade agreements between China and the countries along the belt and road,the amount of foreign direct investment,trade freedom,financial freedom,investment freedom and air transport volume have impacts on China′s import trade in varying degrees.China′s import trade efficiency has gradually improved,but the average trade efficiency is low,and the trade efficiency of different countries and regions is different;in the short run,China′s import trade potential shows polarization,while in the long term,China′s import trade potential still has a huge space to tap.The analysis of the efficiency of China′s import trade has enlightening significance for us to fully tap the short-term and long-term potential of China′s import trade,continue to expand China′s import trade,and adhere to the concept of mutual benefit and win-win.