新冠疫情对国际天然气市场的影响和中长期气价走势分析

Impact of COVID-19 on global natural-gas market and middle-and long-term trend of gas price

2020年,突如其来的新冠疫情和油价暴跌给稳定发展中的全球天然气市场造成巨大冲击。天然气需求陷入低迷,全球天然气价格特别是国际现货天然气贸易价格急剧下跌,2020年甚至2021年的世界天然气市场极有可能出现罕见的负增长。为了给中国天然气进口或生产企业制定国内天然气供应策略以及中国天然气发展战略提供参考,分析了2020年新冠疫情以来,世界天然气市场在国际天然气价格、天然气需求、天然气供应形势和国际天然气贸易合同等方面出现与以往不同的特点和走势,即国际气价探底、需求急剧下降、供应陡然逆转、国际贸易量逆势增长等。研究结果表明:①预计全球天然气需求量2020年抑或下降4%~7%,全球LNG需求量可能出现史上第一次下降;②全球天然气产量供过于求,全球LNG液化项目负荷降低、投产延迟、FID搁浅,然而LNG合同签订数量却逆市上扬,与油价挂钩的长期合约反而更受欢迎;③随着市场供需艰难的再平衡,未来10年的天然气气价将呈“抛物线”走势,即于2021年反弹、2024年见顶、2027年回调,2030前后将出现各类气价水平趋同的走势。

In 2020,an outbreak of COVID-19 and a sharp drop of oil price heavily hit global stably-developing naturalgas market,resulting that gas demand is depressed and gas price especially international spot trading price drops sharply.The global gas market is likely to see a rare negative growth in 2020 and even in 2021.So,from aspects of international gas price,demand and supply,and gas trade contract,some new characteristics and trend of gas market since COVID-19 outbreak were analyzed,including the slump of international gas price,the contract of demand,the sudden reversal of supply,and the rising of international trade volume against the trend,so as to provide reference for China's gas import or production enterprises to formulate measures on domestic gas supply and prepare for gas development strategies.Results show that(1)it is expected that the global gas demand will decline by 4%-7% in 2020 and the global LNG demand may decline for the first time in history;(2)the global gas supply exceeds the demand,and the global LNG liquefaction projects suffer lower load,delayed commissioning,and stranded FID,while the signed number of LNG contracts increases against the market,and long-term contracts linked to oil price attract more interest instead;and(3)with hard market supply-demand rebalance,the gas price in the next 10 years will present a“parabolic”trend,i.e.,rebounding in 2021,peaking in 2024,falling back in 2027,and various gas price converging around 2030.