农地流转价格对非粮种植的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Farmland Circulation Price on Non-grain Planting

随着近年来资本下乡和流转价格持续上涨,农地非粮种植的趋势明显。本文利用2018年1-3月份黄淮海农区农户调查数据,基于613个已经流转的地块,采用Probit和可以处理内生性的异方差内生处理(HEP)模型,实证分析流转价格对农地非粮种植的影响。研究结果表明:土地流转价格的提高,不仅增加农地非粮种植的可能性,还会提升地块非粮种植的比例,加剧种植结构"非粮化"。剔除"零租金"地块后的稳健性检验表明:流转价格的提高,对农地非粮种植的概率和非粮种植比例都有显著的正向影响。为了保障国家粮食安全,政府应重视流转价格对农地种植结构的影响。一方面,加快形成农地流转价格调控、引导机制,避免农地流转价格不合理地过快上涨;另一方面,将财政补贴向粮食种植户倾斜,避免财政补贴推高流转价格推动非粮种植。

With capital going to the countryside and circulating prices have continued to rise,the trend of non-grain cultivation on agricultural land is apparent.Based on farmers'survey data in the Huanghuaihai from January to March 2018,this paper uses Probit and the HEP model to analyze the impact of transfer prices on agricultural land.The results show that the increase in land transfer prices will increase the possibility of non-grain planting on agricultural land,the proportion of non-grain planting in plots and intensify the"non-grain"planting structure.After excluding the"zero rent"plots,the test shows that the increase in the circulation price has a significant positive impact on the probability of non-grain planting on agricultural land and the proportion of non-grain planting.To ensure national food security,the government should focus on the impact of turnover prices.On the one hand,speed up the formation of agricultural land transfer price control and guidance mechanisms.On the other hand,tilt financial subsidies to grain growers.