河内会谈后美朝弃核博弈:核心 议题、策略选择和风险分析

Core issues,Strategic Choice and Risk Analysis of U.S.-DPRK Game of Nuclear Power Abandonment after theHanoi Summit

河内会谈破裂后,美朝围绕朝核问题的博弈仍在继续。针对美国“一揽子、大交易”弃核要求,朝鲜以“取消全部对朝敌对政策”抗衡美国的“朝鲜完全无核化”,坚持“分阶段、同步走”弃核方式。在弃核博弈策略上,双方谋取相对收益最大化,导致谈判陷入僵局。重新谈判取得成果的关键是,双方必须放弃对抗性利益诉求,寻求利益的相对均衡。在弃核博弈过程中,由于国际局势和美朝各自政策的变化,对各自利益目标和对预期的不同判断,弃核谈判将伴随着地缘政治风险、政策变动风险和博弈结果风险。因此,在朝鲜半岛无核化过程中,国际社会的介入协调和监督保障作用对维护朝鲜半岛局势稳定非常重要。

After the breakdown of the Hanoi summit,the game between the United States and the DPRK over the North Korean nuclear issue continues.In response to the demand for a complete denuclearization from U.S.,the DPRK insists on a phase-based approach and demands that the U.S.lift some of the sanctions.In the strategy of nuclear power abandonment,both sides attempt to maximize their relative gains,resulting in the impasse in the negotiations.The key to making progress in the negotiation is that both sides should give up the confrontational stance and attempt to seek the relative balance of interests.In the process of game,with the changes of the international situation and policies of the U.S.and the DPRK,there are differences in the objectives and expectations of the interests of both sides and the negotiation will be accompanied by risks relating to geopolitical situation,policy change and game outcome.Therefore,in the process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,the involvement and supervision of the international community is important to prevent the military conflict between the U.S.and the DPRK and to maintain the stability of the Korean Peninsula.