缅甸2020年大选:一党独大还是联合执政?

2020 Myanmar General Election:One Party Dominance or Coalition Government?

尽管面临新冠肺炎疫情的严峻考验,缅甸仍然宣布2020年11月8日如期举行大选。昂山素季领导的民盟在缅甸2020年大选中继续一党独大单独组阁还是各党派联合执政,仍存悬念。通过对民盟五年来的执政状况、2017年和2018年中期选举结果、政党情况等几个方面的分析,民盟在2020年大选中仍然有较大优势,但是不会像2015年大选那样获得压倒性胜利,单独组阁的前景也不乐观。随着民盟支持率的下降,各级议会的席位分散到众多党派手中,拥有25%固定席位的军方影响力将越来越大,最终成为左右缅甸政局的关键力量。

Despite Myanmar is facing with a severe test of the COVID-19 epidemic,General election is scheduled to be held in Myanmar on 8 November 2020.There is much uncertainty whether the NLD would form a cabinet separately or form a coalition cabinet with other parties.According to NLD’s achievement in the past five years,results of the 2017 and 2018 mid-term elections and current situation of all parties,the NLD will maintain a dominant position to win the 2020 general election.However,it would be a victory smaller than the landslide victory in 2015,and the possibility to form a cabinet separately is not optimistic as well.With the descending approval rate of NLD and the distribution of seats in parliaments at all levels,the military,who hold 25%of parliamentary seats,are having greater influence and will become a pivotal power to control the political situation in Myanmar.