东盟地区论坛:止步不前还是负重前行?

ASEAN Regional Forum: Stagnation or Progress?

东盟地区论坛作为安全对话和协商的多边平台,在维护地区和平与稳定方面取得了显著成效。但是近年来,由于亚太安全形势复杂多变,东盟地区论坛遭遇到多重挑战,不仅发展缓慢,甚至还出现不少对其唱衰的声音。厘清东盟地区论坛所面临的挑战,有助于理性分析其发展前景。总体而言,这些挑战既包括外部挑战即亚太大国竞争显著升温的挑战与亚太区域内新兴安全机制的挑战,也包括内部挑战即东盟地区论坛本身的机制不足与成员国之间的安全挑战,还包括“东盟方式”遭遇挫折、阶段目标难以推进、大国严重掣肘这三大实践挑战。着眼未来,东盟地区论坛仍将曲折前进、负重前行,以拓展非传统安全合作、实施有限的机制化以及提升在大国博弈中的引领作用,作为其发展方向。

As a cooperation platform for security dialogue and consultation,the ASEAN Regional Forum(ARF)has achieved remarkable results in maintaining regional peace and stability.However,due to the complex and changeable security situation in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years,ARF has encountered multiple challenges,and its development has been slow.Figuring out the challenges the forum facing will help make rational judgments on its development and explore new trends in forum cooperation.The challenges the ARF facing are as following:the external challenges such as intensified significantly competition among major powers and emerging security mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region;the internal challenges such as insufficient mechanisms of the forum itself and security issues among members;practical challenges such as the“ASEAN way”has suffered a setback,periodic goals are difficult to advance and obstacle derived from great powers.In the future,the ARF will move forward difficultly,focusing on expanding cooperation in non-traditional security fields,implementing limited institutionalization,and enhancing its leading role in the game of major powers.