气候变化对江西茶树高温热害的影响

Effects of Climate Change on Tea Heat Injury in Jiangxi Province

为更好地掌握江西茶树高温热害的发生规律和风险区划,利用江西78个气象站1971~2019年的逐日气象资料,结合前人提出的江南地区茶树高温热害指标,采用Matlab、ArcGIS 10.5、小波分析法统计并分析了49 a江西茶树高温热害时空分布与多时间尺度变化规律;根据各个站点高温热害发生的概率及强度,构建了高温热害风险值,并利用该值对江西茶树进行了风险区划。结果表明:在全球气候变暖的影响下,江西茶树高温热害频发、重发。2000~2019年年均发生茶树高温热害的站数(20.9)较前20年增加了2倍,年均灾害强度(33.3)是前20年的2.3倍。高温热害站数及强度最严重年代出现在2011~2019年,最少年代出现在1991~2000年。高温热害站数突变在2018年,强度突变在1974年和2018年。茶树高温热害发生概率较高的地区主要分布在抚州南部、新余西部、赣州西部、九江市少数地区。

In order to better master regularity and risk division of Jiangxi tea heat injury,based on the meteorological data of 78 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1971 to 2019,combined with the index of tea heat injury of south region of the Yangtze River,The temporal and spatial distribution and multi-time scale variation of Jiangxi tea heat injury in recent 49 years were analyzed statistically by Matlab,ArcGIS10.5 and wavelet analysis method.According to occurrence probability and strength of tea heat injury of the every meteorological station,we built risk index of heat injury and conducted risk zoning by the risk index.The results showed that tea heat injury in Jiangxi occurred frequently due to the influence of climate warming.From 2000 to 2019,the number of tea heat injury stations(20.9)increased by 2 times compared with the previous 20 years,and the annual disaster intensity(33.3)was 2.3 times that of the previous 20 years.The stations and strength of tea heat injury during 2011~2019 were most serious,and the least years were 1991~2000.Mutation time of stations of tea heat injury was in 2018,and strength was in 1974 and 2018.South of Fuzhou,west of Xinyu and Ganzhou City,part of Jiujiang had high probability of occurrence.