2020年5月刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情快速风险评估

Rapid risk assessment of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo in May 2020

目的评估2020年5月刚果民主共和国第11轮埃博拉病毒病疫情对我国的影响,为有关部门防控疫情输入提供有针对性的建议和措施。方法采用专家会商法研判埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的风险。疫情信息主要来自世界卫生组织网站疫情报告。结果 2020年6月1日,刚果民主共和国宣布第11轮埃博拉病毒病疫情暴发,初步报告6例病例,其中4例死亡。截止到2020年5月19日,刚果民主共和国累计报告3 462例埃博拉病毒病病例,其中2 279例死亡,总病死率66%;57%为女性,29%为18岁以下儿童,5%为医护人员。在综合评估疫情特点、与我国交流情况、现有防疫措施等可能影响因素的基础上,当前刚果民主共和国埃博拉病毒病疫情输入我国的可能性较低,在我国防控新冠肺炎输入措施、疫苗和实验性药物的保护下,一旦输入对我国人群健康的影响为中等,风险描述为中风险。结论应加强口岸埃博拉病毒病疫情监测,严防埃博拉病毒病病例输入,防止疫情叠加对我国人群健康造成影响。

Objective To assess the risk of 11 th Ebola virus disease(EVD) outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo in May 2020 on China,the targeted suggestions and measurements will be provided for the relevant government department to prevent and control imported EVD. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the weekly data of EVD from World Health Organization website. Results On June 1,2020,the Democratic Republic of Congo announced the 11 th EVD outbreak,6 cases were reported,including 4 deaths. At the end of May 19,2020,a total of 3 462 EVD cases were reported in Democratic Republic of Congo,among them,2279 died with a total mortality rate of 66%,57% were female,29% were children under 18 years age,and 5% were medical personnel. On the basis of a comprehensive assessment of the characteristics of the outbreak,the international exchanges,the prevention and control measurements and other probable influencing factors,the possibility of EVD imported to China was low. Considering the current measurements of COVID-19 performed at China point of entry(PoE),vaccines of EVD,therapeutic drugs and others,the impact of importation on the health of Chinese population was moderate,the risk level was described as moderate. Conclusion The surveillance of EVD at PoE should be strengthened to prevent EVD cases imported,which will reduce the impact of the superimposition of EVD and other infectious diseases on the health of Chinese population.