“双向运动”与民粹主义的政治经济分析——以美国为例

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF“DOUBLE MOVEMENT”AND POPULISM——TAKE THE UNITED STATES AS AN EXAMPLE

民粹主义已经成为当今世界最为重要的政治现象,新一轮的民粹主义呈现“左翼民粹”和“右翼民粹”共振的新特征。波兰尼的市场与社会的“双向运动”理论,提供了透视新一轮民粹主义浪潮的一个视角。肇始于20世纪70年代的新自由主义运动,造成西方严重的社会贫富差距以及产业“空心化”,随之而来的是社会的“反向运动”,它集中反映在政治领域,表现为政治极化和民粹主义政党的崛起。美国政治中民粹主义尤为明显,根据“中间选民定理”可知,两党制国家选民偏好呈现双峰,政党选举的最优位置是选民偏好的峰点。在经济全球化过程中,作为美国左翼代表的民主党日益“右移”,丧失了部分左翼选民的支持。而特朗普以反全球化为“旗帜”,获得中下层白人选民的支持,最终挟右翼民粹主义当选美国总统。这一现象的背后反映了西方社会对全球化的“拒斥”;同时,也反映西方政党回应性的“弱化”。

Populism has become the most important political phenomenon in today’s world.A new round of populism shows a new resonance characteristic of“left-wing populism”and“right-wing populism”.Polanyi’s“double movement”of markets and society offers a perspective on the new wave of populism.The neoliberal movement,which started in the 1970s,caused the gap between the rich and the poor and the hollowing out of industries in western society.What followed was a social backlash,which was concentrated in the political sphere,with the rise of political polarization and populist parties.Populism is particularly obvious in American politics.According to the“middle voter theorem”,the preference of voters in two-party system shows double peaks,and the optimal position of party election is the peak point of voter preference.In the process of economic globalization,the Democratic Party,as a representative of the left,has increasingly moved to the right and lost some of the support of left-wing voters.With anti-globalization as the“banner”,trump won the support of lower-middle white voters and eventually won the us presidency with right-wing populism.Behind this phenomenon reflects the“rejection”of globalization in western society;Meanwhile,it also reflects the“weakening”of the responsiveness of western political parties.