不同城镇化发展速度下房地产投资规模对经济发展的影响

The Impact of Real Estate Investment Scale on Economic Development in Different Rate of Urbanization

以城镇化发展速度、房地产投资与经济增长三者之间相互作用机制为基础,采用面板门限模型,以城镇化的发展速度为门槛值对我国35个大中城市房地产投资与经济发展之间的关系进行研究,研究结果显示房地产投资规模的变动对经济发展的影响会因为城镇化推进速度的不同表现出显著的非线性特征,当城镇化率的增长速度值处于1.1%~1.4%时,房地产投资规模的增加对经济发展呈显著的正向影响,当城镇化率的增长速度值超过1.4%时,房地产投资规模的增加则不利于经济的发展。鉴于此,提出了因城施策、调节人口迁徙流向、建立房地产准入制度等发展建议。

Based on the interaction mechanism among urbanization speed,real estate investment and economic growth,the panel threshold model is adopted to study the relationship between real estate investment and economic development in 35 large and medium-sized cities in our country with the development speed of urbanization as the threshold value.The research results show that the impact of changes in the scale of real estate investment on economic development will show significant non-linear characteristics due to the difference in the speed of urbanization.When the growth rate of urbanization rate is between 1.1%and 1.4%,the increase in real estate investment scale has a significant positive impact on economic development.When the growth rate of urbanization rate exceeds 1.4%,the increase in real estate investment scale will have a negative impact on economic development.In view of this,development suggestions such as implementing policies in different cities,adjusting the flow of population migration,and establishing a real estate access system were put forward.