中国城镇居民住房资产估算

An Estimation of the Housing Assets of Urban Households in China

从资产负债表角度分析经济运行状况已成为经济研究的重要方向之一。住房资产是居民资产中最为重要的部分,但我国官方尚未公布居民资产负债表数据,因此,估算城镇居民住房资产对研究房地产市场和居民资产负债状况是非常必要的。本文利用官方公布的相关数据,以国民经济核算国际标准《国民账户体系(2008)》确定居民住房资产范围,并根据居民住房的不同属性,分别确定估价原则,对城镇居民住房资产总量进行核算。相对于之前的研究,本文针对我国复杂的城镇居民住房体系,对不同产权属性的住房资产进行了相对准确的估计。从估计结果来看,我国城镇居民住房并不饱和,城镇居民人均住房资产相对于发达国家还有相当差距,随着经济发展,城镇住房依然有较为广阔的发展空间。同时,住房相关负债占住房对应资产的比例并不高,居民住房债务风险整体有限,但应警惕其快速上升的趋势。

It has become a major research direction to do economic analysis from the perspective of the balance sheet.In China,housing assets are the most important components of total household assets.Since the Chinese government does not publish the official balance sheet of the household sector,it is crucial to estimate the housing assets of urban households for the purpose of analyzing the real estate market and the balance sheet of the household sector.Based on published official data,this paper first clarifies the scope of housing assets according to the SNA2008 accounting standards and sets the principles for valuation for different types of housing assets,and then estimates the total value of household housing assets.Compared with previous research results,this paper is more focused on the complex urban housing system of China and produces more accurate estimations of housing assets by type of property rights.The results show that the Chinese urban housing market is not yet saturated and the per capita housing assets is lower than that of developed countries,which means huge growth potential.Meanwhile,the current debt to total asset ratio linked to housing assets is not very high and the overall debt risk remains mild.However,the rapid rise of the debts still requires close attention.