现代金融学的历史演进逻辑

Financial Pricing as a Clues to the Evolution of Modern Finance

金融学的微观理论兴起于20世纪50年代,而宏观理论演进的历史脉络至少可以回溯到19世纪50年代甚至更早。本文通过梳理金融学理论的发展与演进,提出现代金融学可以划分为宏观金融学和微观金融学两大支柱,并通过对两大支柱核心理论的内容以及历史演进过程进行系统梳理,提炼出看似平行发展并不交叉的两个领域间的内在逻辑联系,指出金融价格是联结宏微观金融学理论的逻辑枢纽。从过去一个多世纪的相关理论兴衰交替来看,偏离(远离)金融价格核心指标的数量型金融理论终将因“理论与实践的脱节”及“科学性缺陷”而淡出历史舞台。

The micro theory of finance emerged in 1950 s,while the evolution of macro finance can be traced back to 1850 s or even earlier.By reviewing the development and evolution of financial theories,this paper proposes that modern finance can be divided into two pillars:macro finance and micro finance.After systematically surveying the contents and historical evolution of the core theories of the two pillars,this paper extracts the internal relationship between the two seemingly parallel fields,and points out that financial pricing is the logic hinge between macro finance and micro finance.From the perspective of the rise and fall of relevant theories in the past century,the quantitative financial theories which deviate from the core index of financial pricing all faded out of the historical stage due to the disconnection between theory and practice and scientific defects.