俄罗斯的阿富汗政策:调整、动因与展望

Russia's Policy toward Afghanistan:Adjustment,Motivation and Prospect

俄罗斯近期对阿富汗政策进行了一系列调整:不再奉行反塔利班政策而是与其对话及有限合作;主张通过政治手段解决阿富汗问题,支持美国与塔利班达成和平协议;作为独立于美国之外的重要国际力量,愈发积极、主动地推进阿富汗民族和解进程;在应对来自阿富汗的非传统安全威胁方面,不再寄希望于美国并公开督促美军撤离阿富汗,同时日益重视加强上海合作组织、集体安全条约组织及与盟友的安全合作。国际局势和阿富汗形势的变化,及俄罗斯对阿富汗问题认知的改变,是俄罗斯调整阿富汗政策的主要动因。俄罗斯近期阿富汗政策取得一定成果,但俄罗斯凭自己的实力、威望和影响难以实现其在阿富汗问题上的战略诉求。未来,俄罗斯将通过保持和加强与阿富汗各政治力量的接触与合作,以及继续寻求国际合作,巩固及提升其对阿富汗问题的影响力。

Russia has adjusted its policy toward Afghanistan recently.It no longer pursued an anti-Taliban policy but cooperated with Afghanistan.Russia has supported a political solution on the Afghan issues and approved the US peace deal with the Taliban.Russia has promoted the process of National reconciliation in Afghanistan more actively and proactively.Russia has paid more attention to the security cooperation with SCO,CSTO and its allies than the departure of the American troops.The main motivations for Russia to adjust its Afghanistan policy are the changes in the international situation and in Afghanistan.The Russian policy adjustment on Afghanistan has achieved some positive results,but it is difficult for Russia to realize its strategic appeal in Afghanistan with its own strength and influence.Russia will continue to seek international cooperation to consolidate and enhance its influence in Afghanistan in the future.