美国国会干涉台湾问题的新动向

Changes in US Congress's Interference of the Taiwan Question

特朗普主政以来,美国国会持续加大干涉台湾问题的力度,企图推动美台关系“正常化”。国会自2017年1月至今之所以极力干涉台湾问题,既与美国安全形势和中美关系等宏观层次因素的重大变化直接相关,也与美国“行政一立法”关系、台湾游说集团等中观层次因素,以及美国国会议员和特朗普总统等微观层次因素密不可分。国会干涉台湾问题呈现诸多新趋势,但难免诸多限制。放眼未来,中国的稳定发展是遏制美国国会干涉台湾问题的关键因素。只有中美关系稳定发展,美国对台政策才有可能回归理性。

The US Congress has put greater efforts to interfere with the Taiwan Question during the Donald Trump administration to"normalize"the bilateral relations between the United States and Taiwan.Based on the regular patterns drawn from an empirical study of Taiwan-related bills and resolutions during the 93rd and 114th US Congress(1973-2016),this paper argues that the main factors behind US Congress's interference with the Taiwan isue since January 2017 can be analyzed from structural,institutional,and individual aspects.The 115th and 116th Congress has involved itself further with the Taiwan affairs.Looking forward,China's continuous development is the key factor to constrain such a dangerous trend.Only when China-US relations are back to a normal development can Washington really subject its ties with Taipei to the one-China policy.