基于指数平滑法的山东省船员需求预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Demand for Crew in Shandong Province Based on Exponential Smoothing

为客观准确地预测山东省船员需求,对山东省2020—2029年未来十年的船员需求数量进行了预测分析。以2010—2019年山东省民用船舶拥有量数据为基础,采用二次指数平滑法,首先预测了未来十年山东省民用船舶拥有量;根据船舶配员要求,预测了未来十年山东省船员需求总量和不同职务船员的需求数量。预测结果显示,山东省船员需求量在2020—2029年持续增加,船员需求较大,但增长速率呈现放缓趋势。预测结果可为山东省船员队伍的健康发展及相关决策提供参考。

In order to properly analyze the crew demand in Shandong Province,calculates the needing amounts of Shandong Province seafarers in coming 10 years(2020—2029).Based on the data on the possession of civil ships in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2019,the quadratic exponential smoothing method is used to first predict the number of civil ships in Shandong Province in the next ten years.Then according to ship safety manning,forecasted the total demand for seafarers and the demand for seafarers of different duties in Shandong Province.The research results show that the demand for the crew in Shandong Province has been growing in 2020—2029.