决胜阶段农村贫困人口收入结构性变化及影响因素分析

Structural Changes of Poor Farmers'Income and Influencing Factors in the Decisive Stage

基于204户建档立卡户的精准扶贫调查数据,运用二元logistic模型实证检验家庭禀赋、生计负担、政策支持和个人特征等因素与收入变化的关系,分析贫困人口收入数量和构成两方面的变化并探寻内在逻辑。研究发现:家庭禀赋好、生计负担轻、政策落实到位的建档立卡户收入增长的可能性和比例较大。家庭禀赋和政策支持对收入增加有显著的正向激励作用,而生计负担因素对扶贫效果产生了抑制影响,医疗负担、教育负担及养老负担对家庭收入增长具有“弱化”效果,但效果不显著。以上发现可以为政府部门巩固脱贫攻坚成果,促进农户生计可持续发展以及绝对贫困向相对贫困转变提供借鉴与参考。

Based on the accurate poverty-alleviation survey data of 204 registered households,the paper uses the dual logistic model to empirically test the relationship between family endowment,livelihood burden,policy support and personal characteristics and income changes,analyzes the changes in the number and composition of the income of the poor people and explores the internal logic.The study has found that such registered households with good family endowments,light livelihood burdens and favorable policies are likely to increase their income.Family endowment and policy support have a significantly positive incentive effect on the increase in income,while livelihood burden factors have a restraining effect on poverty alleviation.Medical burden,educational burden and pension burden have a“weakening”effect on family income growth,but the effect is not significant.The above findings can provide valuable references for government departments to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation,promote the sustainable development of farmers'livelihoods,and transform absolute poverty into relative poverty.