“新阳光政策”的韩国路径分析

Analysis of ROK Path of"New Sunshine Policy"

朝核问题一直是东北亚地区围绕的中心点,由文在寅政府对朝政策的制定、实施及朝鲜对外反馈来看,韩朝关系发展的核心问题仍悬而未决。以地缘政治学为理论框架,通过对影响文在寅政府对朝决策以及政策实施的相关因素进行剖析后可见,文在寅政府对朝“新阳光政策”以坚固的美韩同盟为基础,以对朝制裁施压与对话“双轨”战略为主基调,其政策目标是以和平方式推动韩朝对话并引向美朝对话,最终实现韩朝关系的正常化及半岛无核化并建立永久和平机制,从而保障自身安全及美国战略利益。然而,半岛问题和平解决虽出现契机,但距离突破核心问题尚远,根源在于半岛的“安全阀”并非掌握在韩国手中,“钥匙”分别掌于美朝之手,显然朝核问题的解决并不会始终被韩国主导,而美朝关系围绕着朝核等问题的解决路径坎坷曲折,双方一直处于零和博弈的状态及冷战式思维,核心利益有所冲突且调和困难。此外,要处理好半岛问题除了韩美朝三方协调谈判外,国际社会的支持与协调必不可少,更需保持对半岛利益攸关方的克制与管控。

The nuclear issue of the DPRK has always been the heated topic of northeast Asia.Seen from the formulation and implementation of the policy of the Moon Jae-in government on the DPRK and the feedback from the DPRK,the development of inter-Korean relations has"broken the ice",but the core issue is still pending.Taking the theoretical framework of geopolitics,an analysis on the direct influence on the Moon Jae-in to government decision-making and policy implementation factors of Moon Jae-in government shows that the"Sunshine Policy"on North Korea is based on a strong alliance between the United States and South Korea.The policy aims at putting pressure on sanctions and dialogue"dual-track"strategy,and realizing denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and establishing permanent peace.Its policy goal is to peacefully promote the inter-Korean dialogue and even the U.S.-DPRK dialogue,and ultimately normalize inter-Korean relations and establish a mechanism for denuclearization and permanent peace on the peninsula,so as to safeguard its own security and U.S.strategic interests.A peaceful solution to the Peninsula problem sees a chance,yet,only a slight chance.The root is that the relief valve is not in the hands of south Korean peninsula,and the keys are in the hands of both the U.S.and the DPRK.Clearly,the DPRK nuclear issue will not be solved by South Korea,and the relationship between the U.S.and the DPRK around the nuclear issues teems with bumpy twists and turns.The two sides have been in a state of zero-sum game and cold war thinking,and core interests of both sides are in conflict.In addition,the coordination and negotiation among the ROK,the U.S.and the DPRK calls for the support and coordination of the international community in handling the Korean Peninsula issue.