美日智库交流与特朗普政府时期的同盟管理——美日代表性智库互动视角

U.S.-Japan Think-tank Exchanges and the Alliance Management under the Trump Administration:From the Perspective of Interaction between Representative Think-tanks in the U.S.and Japan

面对特朗普冲击,美日主流智库的同盟认知不仅没有动摇反而更加牢固。基于对中国安全挑战的一致认识,美日智库不断为两国持续强化同盟关系提供智力支持。基于美国国内的意见分歧和特朗普的独特性,美日智库在多边主义、自由主义国际秩序等方面的建议无法阻止特朗普政府的单边主义行为,但是美日智库的国际交流在一定程度上激发了美国对日本的重视,也为日本提供了缓解美国对日中接近的疑虑的渠道,有利于双方避免误判、巩固共识。中国可以促进日本在中美日三边关系中发挥桥梁作用,但是利用特朗普冲击分化美日同盟的观点并不符合实际。当前中日关系的最大公约数在于两国对多边国际贸易秩序的重视,中日关系能否顺利发展的决定因素之一,在于两国在维护多边贸易秩序方面是否能持续满足彼此的期待。

Faced with“the Trump’s shock”,the perception of alliance among mainstream think-tanks in the United States and Japan has been,rather than weakened,become even more solid.Based on a consistent understanding of China’s security challenge,think-tanks both in U.S.and Japan continue to provide intellectual support for strengthening the alliance.Due to domestic differences in the U.S.and Trump’s unique policy,the policy recommendations from American and Japanese think-tanks on promoting the multilateralism and liberal international order can not stop the unilateralism of the Trump administration.However,exchanges between American and Japanese think-tanks have inspired the U.S.to attach more importance to Japan,and also provided Japan with a channel to ease America’s doubts about Japan’s proximity to China,in order to avoid misjudgment and consolidate consensus.It is possible for China to make Japan take a role as a bridge of communication in the trilateral relations among China,the U.S.and Japan,but it is not possible to make use of“the Trump’s shock”to break up the U.S.-Japan alliance.At present,the fundamental common ground of Sino-Japanese relations is the great importance that both sides attach to the multilateral international trade order,and one of the most decisive factors for development of Sino-Japanese relations lies in whether both sides can continuously meet each other’s expectations in maintaining the multilateral trade order.