摘要
本文从理论和实证两个层面分析了工业机器人的使用对经济增长的影响。理论方面,本文在Acemoglu and Restrepo(2018a)的基础上,将机器人的规模效应和定价行为引入了任务模型,证明了工业机器人不仅可以直接影响经济增长,还可以通过全要素生产率影响经济增长。实证方面,本文匹配了国际机器人联合会发布的工业机器人使用数据和佩恩表,得到1993—2017年72个国家或地区的机器人使用数据以及相关的宏观经济数据,实证结果发现机器人的使用确实对经济增长具有促进作用,在人口红利晚期和后人口红利时期效果更加显著,并且按照行业、用途以及上下游作用划分的回归结果也均支持这一结论。中介效应的结果显示,全要素生产率是工业机器人影响经济增长的重要传导机制,其解释力达到总效应的60%。为了解决内生性问题,本文运用其他国家的机器人数量以及2006年轻型工业机器人的发明和使用作为工具变量,发现结果依然稳健。本文的研究为中国在新时期推动工业机器人产业更好地服务于经济高质量发展提供了决策参考。
This paper analyzes the impact of industrial robots on economic growth by both theoretical model and empirical study.In theory,the scale effect and pricing behavior of robots are introduced into the task model proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo(2018a)in this paper,which proves that robots can not only influence economic growth directly,but also can influence economic growth through TFP.In terms of empirical analysis,this paper matches the industrial robot usage data published by the International Federation of Robotics with the Penn World Table,and gets the robot usage data and macro-economic data of 72 countries or regions between 1993 and 2017.The empirical results show that the usage of robots has a positive effect on economic growth,especially in the late-and post-demographic dividend period.Industrial robots are sub-grouped and regressed according to different industries,application,and upstream-downstream effects,which also support the conclusions of this paper.Additionally,the analysis of intermediary effect shows that TFP is the important transmission mechanism of industrial robots influencing economic growth,with the explanatory power being over 60%of the total effect.Finally,to solve the endogenous problem,this paper uses the number of robots in other countries as an instrumental variable and usage of light industrial robots as a technical shock to economic growth in 2006,the result is still robust.The paper provides policy implications for China to promote the industrial robot industry to serve the high-quality economic development better in the new period.
作者
杨光
侯钰
YANG Guang;HOU Yu(Apartment of Economics of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for China Economy of Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;College of Economics and Management of Yanbian University,Yanji133002,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期138-156,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国参与多边贸易体制改革的方案设计与谈判策略研究”(批准号19ZDA064)
国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国经济持续稳定发展的投资—储蓄—增长机制研究”(批准号18CJL013)
中央高校基本科研业务项目“新时代中国特色社会主义经济建设实践与理论”(批准号63185009)。
关键词
工业机器人
全要素生产率
经济增长
industrial robots
total factor productivity
economic growth
