2020年1月19日新疆伽师6.4级地震灾害损失快速评估精准性分析

Contrastive Analysis on the Accuracy of Rapid Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Losses by 2020 M_S6.4 Jiashi Earthquake in Xinjiang China

进行地震灾害快速评估时,地震发生时刻、震级、极震区烈度评估、宏观震中与微观震中偏离、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵等是影响地震灾害损失计算的主要因素,各因素存在不确定性,所以评估结果与实际结果存在一定差距。本文探讨了2020年1月19日新疆伽师6.4级地震灾害评估中极震区烈度评估、地震影响场、宏观震中与微观震中偏离、烈度衰减关系模型、人员伤亡评估模型、房屋震害矩阵与真实结果的偏差。研究结果表明,造成本次地震损失快速评估结果存在偏差的主要因素包括地震影响场分布、人口与房屋建筑(对应抗震能力)数量评估的偏差;提高地震影响场评估、人口、房屋建筑等数据空间分布精准性,是提高地震灾害损失快速评估系统精准性的基础和前提。

In the rapid assessment of earthquake disasters, the moment of earthquake occurrence, the magnitude of the earthquake, the estimation of the intensity of the polar earthquake zone, the deviation of the macro epicenter from the micro epicenter, the relationship between the intensity attenuation, the estimation model of casualties, the damage matrix of the house, etc. are the main factors that affect the calculation of earthquake disaster losses. These elements themselves are umcertain, so there will be a gap between the evaluation results and the actual results. This article discusses the intensity estimation, impact field, macro-epicenter and micro-epicenter deviation, intensity attenuation relationship, damage estimation model, house damage matrix, and real results of the mid-earthquake earthquake assessment on the January 19, 2020 Xinjiang M_S6.4 earthquake disaster assessment Deviation and precision. The results show that the main factors that cause different results of the rapid assessment of this earthquake loss are: the distribution of the seismic impact field, the deviation of the population and the number of buildings(corresponding to the seismic capacity). The comparative study shows that improving the accuracy of the assessment of the seismic impact field and the accuracy of the spatial distribution of data such as population and buildings are of great significance for improving the accuracy of rapid assessment of earthquake disaster losses.