地表水水质模型综合评价技术体系研究

Comprehensive Evaluation Technology System for Surface Water Quality Models

水环境数学模型开发及应用的不规范会严重影响水环境管理决策的有效性和科学性.为了更好地发挥模型的职能,减少因采用的模型差异而造成差别管理等不公平因素,应当建立科学的模型筛选制度和评价体系.基于模型开发及应用的生命周期全过程,在文献调研和专家咨询基础上,提出了包含目标层、准则层和指标层的地表水水质模型综合评价指标和评价方法,其中指标层包括通用性、可靠性、友好性、先进性和易用性5个准则的29个指标.采用层次分析法和专家打分法确定指标值及指标权重,并以国内外常用的水质模型,即HEC-RAS、MIKE11、CE-QUAL-W2、WASP、EFDC和Delft3D模型为例,进行了水质模型的综合评价.案例应用的模型评价得分高低的排序依次为Delft3D、EFDC、CE-QUAL-W2、MIKE11、WASP和HEC-RAS模型,结果表明建立的水质模型综合评价技术体系科学、可靠、易用,可为我国水环境数学模型的规范化建设提供重要参考.

The nonstandard development and application of mathematical models of the water environment seriously affects the effectiveness and scientific nature of water environment management decisions.In order to give full play to the models and reduce unfair factors such as differential management due to different models adopted,a scientific model screening regime and evaluation system should be established.Based on the entire life cycle of model development and application,and with reference to research literature and expert consultation,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation index and method for surface water quality models covering the target layer,criterion layer and index layer.Among these three layers,the target layer involves five criteria(versatility,reliability,friendliness,advancement and usability)and 29 indicators.In this paper,the index value and weight are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method and the expert scoring method,and the comprehensive evaluation of water quality models is based on case study of water quality models commonly used in China and abroad,including HEC-RAS,MIKE11,CE-QUAL-W2,WASP,EFDC and Delft3D.The evaluation of the models in the case study ranked the models in the following order:Delft3D,EFDC,CE-QUAL-W2,MIKE11,WASP and HEC-RAS.The results demonstrate that the established comprehensive evaluation technology system for surface water quality models is scientific,reliable,and easy to use,which provides an important reference for the standardized development of mathematical models of the water environment in China.