天气状况因素对隼形目猛禽迁徙数量的影响——基于负二项混合回归模型

Effects of Weather Conditions on the Abundance of Migration Falconiformes——Based on Negative Binomial Mixed Regression Model

通过拟合负二项混合回归模型,对隼形目猛禽迁徙总数和各类隼形目猛禽迁徙总数与一系列天气状况变量之间的关系进行量化分析;然后使用多重共线性检验等检验方法,验证最终模型存在的合理性.研究结果显示,部分天气状况变量(例如温度、可见度等)显著影响隼形目猛禽迁徙总数和各类隼形目猛禽迁徙总数,但影响的程度较低.此外,主要观察员的随机效应也会对记录隼形目猛禽迁徙总数和部分类型隼形目猛禽迁徙总数产生轻微影响.

In this paper,negative binomial mixed regression models were fitted to quantify the potential relationships between the abundance of migration Falconiformes(including the number of overall and five specific types of migration Falconiformes)and a series of weather conditions variables.After model fitting,multicollinearity tests and some other tests were performed to verify the rationality of such final models.The results showed that some weather condition variables(such as temperature and visibility)significantly affected the abundance of migration Falconiformes,but the effects were relatively low.In addition,the random effects of the main observer existed in some models and had slight influences on the number of overall and some types of migration Falconiformes.