地方政府债务风险对区域性金融风险的空间溢出效应

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Risks on Regional Financial Risks

为了助益区域性金融风险管理,从全方位总体层面与微观成因层面分析区域性金融风险的形成机制,本文利用中国省级面板数据,对省际区域性金融风险以及地方政府债务风险进行测算,并实证检验二者的省际空间溢出效应。研究发现:2009—2017年中国区域性金融风险呈现震荡上升趋势,多数省份2017年的金融风险水平已明显高于2009年后全球金融危机期间的风险水平,且其最突出的风险贡献来自地方政府债务风险;地方政府债务风险对区域性金融风险具有较强的空间溢出效应,二者存在共振效应;区域性金融风险具有较强的空间溢出效应,改善经济基础、金融环境、法治环境以及经济参与主体对于缓释金融风险和地方债务违约风险具有积极作用。

In order to help regional financial risk management,analyze the formation mechanism of regional financial risks from the comprehensive level and the micro-cause level.This paper uses the panel data of provinces in China to calculate the inter-provincial regional financial risk and local government debt risk,and empirically tests the inter-provincial spatial spillover effect of them.The study found that:China’s regional financial risks showed a trend of increasing turbulence from 2009 to 2017,and the financial risk level of most provinces in 2017 was significantly higher than that during the global financial crisis after 2009,among which the most prominent risk contribution came from local government debt risk;Local government debt risk has a strong spatial spillover effect on regional financial risk,and the resonance mechanism of the two exists;Regional financial risks have a strong spatial spillover effect,and improving the economic foundation,financial environment,rule of law environment and economic participants plays a positive role in mitigating financial risks and local debt default risks.