从制度竞争到制度脱钩——中美国际制度互动的演进逻辑

From Institutional Competition to Institutional Decoupling:The Evolutionary Logic of China-U.S.International Institutional Interaction

中美国际制度关系正处于重要转型阶段,从相对紧密联系的挂钩阶段滑向全面切断联系的脱钩阶段。理解中美两国复杂的国际制度关系需要超越合作—竞争的二分法。从制度行为的历史发展向度出发,中美国际制度互动可分为制度对抗、制度接触、制度竞合和制度脱钩四个阶段。国际制度脱钩是中美关系复杂深刻变化的重要表现,是制度竞争恶化的产物,从国际制度层面加剧了中美经贸和科技脱钩。中美国际制度脱钩主要表现为政治、规则、观念和功能联结的脱钩,其中,政治联结的脱钩决定了规则联结和功能联结的脱钩,而观念联结的脱钩更具深层意义。制度竞争和对立使得国际制度不仅未能成为中美经济脱钩的对冲力量,反而出现了制度脱钩的可能前景。美国追求国际制度脱钩缘于体系和个体层面的多重因素影响,严重削弱国际制度功能,破坏中美合作平台,引发两极对抗担忧,恶化全球治理前景,需要引起高度重视。就国际制度研究本身而言,制度脱钩历史上前所未有,需要挖掘合作型制度互动的合理成分,规范中美日益僵持的竞争型制度互动,用“确定性”的国际制度战略破除中美制度脱钩的“不确定性”,避免朝着全面脱钩的方向发展。

The international institutional relationship between China and the United States is in an important transitional stage,from a close linking stage to a decoupling stage.The complex international institutional relations between China and the United States need to go beyond the dichotomy of cooperation and competition.According to the relevant theories of historical institutionalism and from the historical development dimension of institutional behavior,the Sino-U.S.international institutional interaction can be divided into four categories:institutional antagonism,contact,concurrence and decoupling.The institutional decoupling is an important aspect of the complex changes in Sino-U.S.relations,and is the product of the deterioration of institutional competition,which has intensified the decoupling of Sino-U.S.economy and science and technology at the institutional level.The Sino-U.S.institutional decoupling includes the decoupling of politics,rules,ideas and functions.Among them,the decoupling of political connection determines the decoupling of rules and functions,and the decoupling of ideas is of more profound significance.The institutional competition and opposition make international institutions not only fail to become the hedging force of economic decoupling,but also have the potential prospect of institutional decoupling.The United States pursuit of institutional decoupling with China,which is driven by multiple factors at the system and individual level,weakens the function of the international institutions,destroys the cooperation platform,arouses worries of confrontation between the two powers,and worsens the prospects for global governance.As this institutional decoupling is unprecedented,it is necessary to explore the components of cooperative institutional interaction,standardize the increasingly stalemate competitive institutional interaction,use the‘certainty’of institutional strategy to break the‘uncertainty’of institutional decoupling,and avoid the development of a parallel institution that is fully decoupled.