贫困地区能源与环境约束下经济增长尾效及其特征——基于中国21个省份2000~2017年面板数据的实证研究

Drag Effects and Its Features in Economic Growth of Poverty-Stricken Areas under Constraints of Energy and Environment

研究目标:度量贫困地区经济增长的能源与环境约束程度及其特征。研究方法:根据Romer内生增长理论,释放规模报酬不变的假定,构建贫困地区能源与碳排放的经济增长尾效模型和纳入时空效应的空间面板模型,利用中国21个相对贫困省份2000~2017年面板数据进行测算与分析。研究发现:(1)就单个省份而言,样本期内21个省份普遍存在能源与CO 2排放对经济增长的约束效应,且呈现一定的分布特征,其中江西省总尾效值小于1%,为低约束型;贵州、吉林、云南、湖北、甘肃、湖南、四川、河南、内蒙古、河北、广西的总尾效值大于1%且小于5%,属于高约束型;而山西、黑龙江、宁夏、安徽、陕西、重庆、青海、海南、新疆的总尾效值大于5%,属于强约束型;地区经济增长总尾效均值为5.66%,属于强约束型,可见大多数省份经济发展方式仍为粗放型。(2)就贫困地区整体而言,样本期内经济增长总尾效呈现明显下降,普通面板和空间面板两种方法得出的总尾效值分别为1.23%和1.18%;且总尾效主要由能源尾效构成,两种方法得到的能源尾效值皆为2%左右,而碳排放尾效值皆约为-0.8%,表明贫困地区经济增长的能源约束趋强而碳排放约束趋弱;通过空间杜宾模型测得的总尾效值比普通面板测得的值低0.05%,说明要素空间流动与优化配置对邻近地区产生溢出效应,有利于降低尾效。研究创新:针对贫困地区经济增长的能源与环境约束效应、构成及其特征进行空间分析。研究价值:对于贫困地区如何突破能源与环境约束、走高质量发展之路具有启示意义和参考价值。

Research Objectives:This paper measures the growth drag and its features under the constraints of energy and environment in poverty-stricken areas.Research Methods:Based on Romer's endogenous growth theory by relaxing the assumption of constant return to scale,a drag-effect model with energy and CO 2 emissions and a spatial panel model with spatiotemporal effects are constructed in poverty-stricken areas.Using the panel data of 21 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,the“tail effect”of economic growth and its factors are examined.Research Results:(1)For a single province,the constraint effect of energy and CO 2 emissions on economic growth is widespread in 21 provinces during the sample period with certain distribution features.The total drag value of Jiangxi Province is less than 1%,which is a lower-constraint type.The total drag value of Guizhou,Jilin,Yunnan,Hubei,Gansu,Hunan,Sichuan,Henan,Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Guangxi is greater than 1%and less than 5%,belonging to the higher constraint type.While for Shanxi,Heilongjiang,Ningxia,Anhui,Shaanxi,Chongqing,Qinghai,Hainan and Xinjiang,the total drag value is more than 5%with the strong constraint type.The average of the total drag value of 21 provinces is 5.66%,which shows the strong constraint type.It can be seen that the economic growth pattern of most provinces is still extensive.(2)On the whole,the total drag value during the sample period demonstrates a significant decline,and the total values with ordinary panel and spatial panel are 1.23%and 1.18%respectively.The total drag value in these areas is mainly composed of energy tail effect.The two energy tail effect values are about 2%by the two methods,while the two drag values of carbon emission are-0.8%approximately.This indicates the economic growth of these areas s is more vulnerable to energy constraints while less environmental constraints.The total drag value measured by the spatial Dubin model is 0.05%lower than that measured by the ordinary panel,which implies that the spatial flow and optimal allocation of production factors have spillover effects on the adjacent areas,which is conducive to reducing the drag value.Research Innovations:This paper designs a spatial analysis on the constraint effect,composition and features of energy and environment of economic growth in poverty-stricken areas.Research Value:This study shows some enlightenment and reference value for poverty-stricken areas how to break through the constraints of energy and environment and take the road of high-quality development.