中国省际调出的增长模式:驱动因素、多层分解与竞争力剖析

The Growth Mode of China's Interprovincial Outflows:Driving Factors,Multi-layer Decomposition and Competitiveness Analysis

研究目标:考察中国省际调出的增长模式。研究方法:基于贸易总额与市场份额的恒定市场份额模型。研究发现:第一,国内市场需求规模的扩张,是推动中国省际调出增长的主导因素;但省际调出的产品主要集中在国内市场需求增长较慢的部门。第二,中国省际调出增长的驱动因素呈现多元化的趋势,其增长模式随着时间在不断优化。第三,沿海省份省际调出的增长模式优于内陆省份;服务部门省际调出的增长模式优于货物部门。第四,省际调出产品的竞争力在下降而进口产品的竞争力在上升;市场需求变动引致的省际调出与进口之间的间接竞争是中国省际调出竞争力下降的主要原因,省际调出与进口之间的直接竞争是中国省际调出竞争力下降的次要原因。研究创新:从区域和部门两个维度分析了中国省际调出增长模式与竞争力的结构性特征。研究价值:对于有效发挥省际贸易在中国经济中的基础性和先导性作用具有重要意义。

Research Objectives:This paper aims to explore the growth mode of China's interprovincial outflows.Research Methods:Constant market share models based on trade volume and market share.Research Findings:Firstly,the expansion of domestic market demand scale is the dominant factor to promote the growth of China's interprovincial outflows.However,the interprovincial outflow products are mainly concentrated in the sectors where the domestic market demand grow slowly.Secondly,the drivers for the growth of China's interprovincial outflows growth are being diversified.This indicate that its growth mode is being optimized over time.Thirdly,the interprovincial outflows growth mode of the coastal provinces is better than that of the inland provinces.And the interprovincial outflows growth mode of the service sectors is better than that of the goods sectors.Finally,the competitiveness of interprovincial outflow products is decreasing while that of imported products is increasing.Moreover,the main reason for the decrease of China's interprovincial outflows competitiveness is the indirect competition between interprovincial outflow products and imported products caused by the change of market demand,while the direct competition between interprovincial outflow products and imported products is the secondary reason.Research Innovations:Digging out the structural characteristics of the growth pattern and competitiveness of China's interprovincial outflows from both regional and sectoral perspectives.Research Value:It is of great significance to effectively play the basic and guiding role of interprovincial trade in China's economy.